Domestic replacement market returns to growth

• 2015 growth predicted at 5%

• By 2019 domestic replacement market valued at £2.5bn

• Longer term forecasts are for steady recovery of around 2-3%

According to the ‘Domestic Replacement Door and Window Market Report – UK 2015-2019 Analysis’ published by AMA Research, the UK market for replacement domestic doors and windows is a substantial but mature sector. Volumes have been in steady underlying decline, but the market returned to value growth in 2014, partly reflecting the release of pent-up demand due to rising consumer confidence and an improving housing market.

The dominant position of PVC-U, especially in the windows and patio door sector, is a key feature with the PVC-U dominated direct sell route to market particularly strong in these product sectors. Aluminium and timber also retain shares, though aluminium is largely restricted to specific applications or products. Composite doors have gained significant market share and have grown rapidly in popularity in recent years. Some major restructuring has been seen in this sector in the last 2 years, with further rationalisation anticipated at all levels of the supply chain. In particular, the composite door sector has seen significant change in terms of acquisitions and companies exiting the market in 2013/14.

AMA’s forecast for the development of the door and window replacement market for 2015 is for further good growth in the region of 5%, given continued growth in the general economy, strong consumer confidence and a good housing market. For the longer term, forecasts are for steady recovery of around 2-3% growth, reflecting market maturity and a steadily rising economy – though growth rates are unlikely to be buoyant on a sustained basis.

“We anticipate that, certainly in the short term, the market will be primarily driven by demand from the private rather than public sector, because of the impact of cuts in government spending for the forecast period” said Andrew Hartley, Director of AMA Research. “However, a return to the volumes seen in the 1990s is not likely. Increases in the market will be limited by a number of factors including the maturity of the market, high household penetration levels, and the extended lifespan of door and window products.”

New legislation may encourage replacement of windows and doors to some extent, as regulations for thermal efficiency etc. become stricter over time, while security and appearance will also drive second/third-time replacement. New niche sectors also continue to offer opportunities – bi-fold doors have been a recent example as homeowners look to open up access to their garden areas with large, flexible glazed areas.

By 2019, it is expected that the market for domestic replacement windows and doors will reach a value of around £2.5bn at retail selling prices. In the longer term, the UK replacement door and window market is likely to see further consolidation at all levels.

The ‘Domestic Replacement Door and Window Market Report – UK 2015-2019 Analysis’ report is published by AMA Research, a leading provider of market research and consultancy services within the construction and home improvement markets. The report is available now and can be ordered online at www.amaresearch.co.uk or by calling 01242 235724.