Market Data
Stability quietly reshapes installations
After years of market turbulence shaped by pandemic-era volatility, the UK’s window and door installation sector appears to be entering a phase of cautious stability. Data shared by FENSA and the GGF and presented at the 2025 FIT Show reveals that while the sector has experienced significant highs and lows, the currently trajectory may reflect a return to long-term norms rather than ongoing decline.
The presentation opened with a retrospective analysis of installation volumes dating back to 2017. Domestic RMI (repair, maintenance and improvement) activity—used as a proxy for market health—peaked dramatically during the Covid boom before tapering off. A 13.4% drop in installations was recorded between 2019 and 2024, with the decline seemingly more dramatic due to the two-year surge during the pandemic. However, when viewed across a broader timeframe, market activity today aligns closely with pre-Covid trends, indicating a natural correction rather than a systemic downturn.
“We’ve essentially just normalised,” Tom Butler, Head of Sales & Marketing of the GGF noted. Installations have begun to stabilise, with Q1 2025 showing a 3.7% increase on the previous year, suggesting early signs of recovery.
Demand still evident, though buyers more selective
The market’s lead and sales figures mirror the installation data. While inquiries and orders have dropped by 21% and 26% respectively from peak levels, year-on-year comparisons show declines are narrowing. Google Trends data for relevant consumer search terms also supports a narrative of latent demand, albeit translating into fewer actual inquiries.
This shift has brought about a more discerning consumer base. With less disposable income and more cautious spending patterns, today’s inquiries are more likely to convert into sales. Conversion rates—one of the few metrics showing consistent improvement—reached 35% in Q4 2023, approaching their pre-pandemic high of 39%.
“The drop in leads means fewer tyre-kickers,” Elton Boocock of Business Pilot explained, suggesting a higher intent to buy among current prospects. This trend may benefit businesses able to efficiently capitalise on serious inquiries.
Despite an uptick in the volume of installations, the size of each job has begun to shrink. The average number of windows per installation fell from 3.67 in Q4 2024 to 3.58 in Q1 2025, a 3.7% drop. Similarly, average job values have begun to decline after years of inflation. Having peaked at £4,578 in 2022, the average job value dipped to £4,405 in Q1 2025.
Though modest in isolation, these figures raise concerns about revenue per job. Smaller, lower-value installations may put additional pressure on installers, who now face a marketplace where both volume and margins require closer attention.
Fewer installers are now operating in the market—a factor that partially offsets declining demand. Yet this does not necessarily ease competitive pressures. “You’ve got to fight harder for every one of those [jobs],” speakers emphasised, urging businesses to sharpen their focus on conversion, marketing, and service delivery.
Digital tools, smart technologies, and AI-based solutions were cited as key enablers in driving efficiency and targeting high-intent customers more effectively.
While the post-Covid period has been marked by instability, the ability to forecast is returning. With seasonality reasserting itself—Q3 typically the busiest period for leads and installations—firms can plan with greater confidence. There is also some early optimism: Q1 2025 saw a 3.8% increase in installations, with both doors and windows registering modest growth.
That said, the strongest signs of demand remain at the higher end of the market. Budget-conscious segments continue to show signs of strain, and the average job size and value trends will require close monitoring.
Key takeaways for installers
• Know your numbers: Understanding both sector-wide and internal business data is crucial in navigating the current landscape.
• Conversion is king: With fewer leads, improving conversion rates is now central to maintaining performance.
• Diversify product offering: A broader mix may provide insulation from volatility in specific segments.
• Leverage digital tools: AI, smart tech and quoting systems can streamline operations and boost competitiveness.
• Forecast with confidence: Market normalisation means more reliable trend analysis—critical for strategic planning.
In a market returning to predictability after years of disruption, adaptability and precision will define success. For now, the worst appears to be over—if firms can adjust to the new, quieter rhythm.
